摘要 :
Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysi...
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Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA methodology used in each paper was assessed based on four main criteria: coverage, consistency, uncertainty assessment, and efficiency. We find a significant increase in SA applications, especially in the environmental field. Theoretical developments in the field represent a small fraction of published studies and do not increase in time. The methods used to develop different scenarios vary widely across the academic literature and applications reviewed. Similarly, the methods and data used to characterize the scenarios and develop response strategies are extremely diverse and are limited by factors such as computational tractability and available time and resources. Based on this review, we recommend a regular process for scenario analysis that includes the steps of analysis, scenario definition, and evaluation.
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This paper proposes a method to generate alternative scenarios from a normal scenario written with a scenario language. This method includes (1) generation of alternative plans and (2) generation of alternative scenario by a user'...
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This paper proposes a method to generate alternative scenarios from a normal scenario written with a scenario language. This method includes (1) generation of alternative plans and (2) generation of alternative scenario by a user's selection of these plans. The proposed method enables users to decrease the omission of the possible alternative scenarios in the early stages of development. The method will be illustrated with some examples.
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This paper proposes a method to generate exceptional scenarios from a normal scenario written with a scenario language. This method includes (1) generation of exceptional plans and (2) generation of exceptional .scenario by a user...
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This paper proposes a method to generate exceptional scenarios from a normal scenario written with a scenario language. This method includes (1) generation of exceptional plans and (2) generation of exceptional .scenario by a user's selection of these pla
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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach cal...
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Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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In developed countries, osteoarthritis (OA) has been among the ten most severe disability diseases in recent years. Approximately, 10% of the world's population struggle with knee OA symptoms at the age of 60. OA causes significan...
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In developed countries, osteoarthritis (OA) has been among the ten most severe disability diseases in recent years. Approximately, 10% of the world's population struggle with knee OA symptoms at the age of 60. OA causes significant pain, disability, lifestyle decline, and financial burdens. Therefore, the discussion regarding the treatment of OA is crucial. In this study, we presented the use of scenario and incident models as frameworks, and divide patients into groups by cluster analysis. Subsequently, we identified the key factors of the initial state and analyzed the medical scenarios. Accordingly, we inferred that the characteristics of a patient influence the outcome of treatments, and administering different treatments to patients triggers different outcomes. The method to carry out this study was using cluster analysis and scenario analysis, and the result shows patients with higher effectiveness of improvement while taking supplement treatment, that is glucosamine. Patients should control their weight appropriately, because high BMI will impact the treatment outcome. Patients who exercise frequently have better treatment outcome, the age and gender rarely influence the treatment outcome. The findings of this study can provide beneficial suggestions for hospitals and physicians in adjusting the supply of treatments, improving medical quality, and providing knee OA patients with a way to adopt appropriate treatment.
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We report results of the first analysis of collisions between stable funda-mental (alias spinless) and vortical (spinning) three-dimensional dissipative soli-tons in a model of a laser cavity. The systematic analysis is carried ou...
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We report results of the first analysis of collisions between stable funda-mental (alias spinless) and vortical (spinning) three-dimensional dissipative soli-tons in a model of a laser cavity. The systematic analysis is carried out for valuesS = 1 and S = 2 of the vorticity of the latter soliton. With the increase of thecollision momentum, y, the same generic scenarios are observed in either case:merger into a single fundamental soliton at both small and relatively large valuesof y, and the formation of two fundamental solitons in an intermediate intervalof variation of the collision momentum x. At very large values of x, the collisionseems quasi-elastic, but the vortex soliton eventually splits into two nonspinningfragments.
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A Critical Review of Carroll's book on scenario-based design is offered [Making Use: Scenario- Based Design of Human-Computer Interactions (2000)]. Carroll characterises scenarios as 'stories about use'. The paper demonstrates tha...
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A Critical Review of Carroll's book on scenario-based design is offered [Making Use: Scenario- Based Design of Human-Computer Interactions (2000)]. Carroll characterises scenarios as 'stories about use'. The paper demonstrates that Carroll's proposals about scenarios and their use in software engineering can be fitted into the broader framework of task analysis in Human-Computer Interaction.
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